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2024 Outlooks: Difference between revisions
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|Globally, while Europe and Canada may already be in recession, we see a U.S. recession by mid-2024 and relatively stable Chinese growth around 5%. Global demand will dip in 2024. Fiscal policy remains a dominant force in the U.S. and China. Any changes to policy will have important implications for growth. Central banks are likely to remain on hold until mid-2024 in most cases with the BoJ bucking the trend with hiking in the spring & autumn and the PBOC easing policy to help support growth. We expect more cuts than the market does, especially for the FOMC and BoE. We also expect QT to continue in the background as central banks cut rates; the one exception to this is the Fed. | | | ||
* Globally, while Europe and Canada may already be in recession, we see a U.S. recession by mid-2024 and relatively stable Chinese growth around 5%. Global demand will dip in 2024. Fiscal policy remains a dominant force in the U.S. and China. Any changes to policy will have important implications for growth. | |||
* Central banks are likely to remain on hold until mid-2024 in most cases with the BoJ bucking the trend with hiking in the spring & autumn and the PBOC easing policy to help support growth. We expect more cuts than the market does, especially for the FOMC and BoE. We also expect QT to continue in the background as central banks cut rates; the one exception to this is the Fed. | |||
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|Charles Schwap<ref>https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/2024-global-outlook-big-picture</ref> | |Charles Schwap<ref>https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/2024-global-outlook-big-picture</ref> | ||
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|The big picture we see for 2024 is of a shallow U-shaped recovery in global economic and earnings growth, rather than the V-shape seen in the last two global recessions of 2008-09 and 2020. | |The big picture we see for 2024 is of a shallow U-shaped recovery in global economic and earnings growth, rather than the V-shape seen in the last two global recessions of 2008-09 and 2020. | ||
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|Blackrock<ref>https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/literature/whitepaper/bii-global-outlook-2024.pdf</ref> | |||
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* We are underweight the broad market – still our largest portfolio allocation. Hopes for rate cuts and a soft landing have driven a rally. We see the risk of these hopes being disappointed | |||
* We are on a weaker growth path and got here with more inflation, higher interest rates and much higher debt levels. The upshot for investors? We think the key is to focus on how the economy and markets are adjusting to the new regime. Adopting the typical cyclical playbook may be misguided. . | |||
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