Consumer Price Index: Difference between revisions

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1 percent.

*In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 7 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $34.00.

* The GSCPI dropped to -1.74 in October, down from -0.70 in September (revised down from an initial reading of -0.69). <ref name=":23">https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive</ref>

 

*September producer price index(PPI) rose 0.5% from a month earlier<ref name=":22">https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf</ref>, exceeding estimate for a 0.3% increase<ref>https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/11/ppi-september2023-.html</ref>.

*Yearly, PPI rose 2.2%, also exceeding estimate for a 1.6% rise and August's 2.0% (revised up from 1.6%).

*Core PPI rose 0.3%, above 0.2% estimate.

* The increase in PPE came mainly from final demand goods, which rose 0.9% on the month.

*Services grew 0.3% in September.

* The rise in goods prices was mainly contributed by gasoline prices, which rose 5.4%.

*'''Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index,10-City and 20-City Composites, all posted a 0.4% month-over-month increase in August.''' After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.9%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted a 1.0% increase each.<ref>https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-announcements/article/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-index-continues-to-trend-upward-in-august/</ref>

*'''The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 2.6% annual change in August, up from a 1.0% change in the previous month.''' The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 3.0%, up from a 1.0% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 2.2%, a slight increase of 0.2% in the previous month.

*For this month, seven of 20 cities reported lower prices. Twelve of the 20 cities reported higher prices in the year ending August 2023 versus the year ending July 2023. Nineteen of the 20 cities show a positive trend in year-over-year price acceleration compared to the prior month.

* The '''FAO Food Price Index*''' (FFPI) averaged 120.6 points in October 2023, down 0.7 points (0.5 percent) from September, continuing the downward trend and standing 14.8 points (10.9 percent) below its corresponding value a year ago.

* The slight drop in October reflects declines in the price indices for sugar, cereals, vegetable oils and meat, while the index for dairy products rebounded.<ref name=":12">https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>

 

* Oil prices declined on average 8.5% m/m in October 2023. And it had a 4% declined over october 2023. <ref name=":5">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>

* Gasoline prices went down -9.5% m/m, and -7.2y/y.  <ref name=":6">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>

* Natural gas prices went up on average 13.1% m/m in september 2023, and -47.3% y/y. <ref name=":7">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP</ref>

* Futures market is now pricing an increase in oil prices, at $77.78 at 2023 year end, and $74 for 2024.<ref name=":4222">https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html</ref>

 

 

* Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 2.3% in October from September. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) dropped to 209.4, down 4.0% from a year ago.

* Over the month of October, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 98.6%, meaning market prices were below MMR values. The average daily sales conversion rate dropped to 52.9%, which indicates that demand has declined but remains at a decent level for this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 52.2% in October 2019.