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Conference Board Leading Index: Difference between revisions
Conference Board Leading Index (view source)
Revision as of 19:50, 20 November 2023
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== Developments == | == Developments == | ||
[[File: | [[File:Leinov23.png|alt=|center|thumb|765x765px|https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators]] | ||
=== October 2023 === | |||
“The US LEI trajectory remained negative, and its six- and twelve-month growth rates also held in negative territory in October,” said '''Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.''' “ After a pause in September, the LEI resumed signaling recession in the near term. The Conference Board expects elevated inflation, high interest rates, and contracting consumer spending—due to depleting pandemic saving and mandatory student loan repayments—to tip the US economy into a very short recession. We forecast that real GDP will expand by just 0.8 percent in 2024.”<ref>https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-nov-2023</ref> | |||
* '''The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®''' (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.8 percent in October 2023 to 103.9 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.7 percent in September. | |||
* The LEI contracted by 3.3 percent over the six-month period between April and October 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.5 percent contraction over the previous six months (October 2022 to April 2023). | |||
* '''The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®''' (CEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in October 2023 at 110.8 (2016=100), but the index is below its September’s level after a downward revision. | |||
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=== September 2023 === | === September 2023 === | ||